Every game and every season counts more for LeBron James than every other player in the league. In Year 17 and at age 35, this might be LeBron’s most important season to date because it might be his last playing at this high of a level. He’s getting a nice rest to be ready for whatever playoff format we end up with, but winning his fourth championship isn’t enough.

In his quest to be the greatest basketball player of all time, the NBA intelligentsia will always put Jordan at number one as long as he more rings. Even if LeBron somehow reaches six or seven, it won’t be a fait accompli that he gets to be the best. There is a level of mysticism around Jordan that is bigger than his accomplishments. Part of that stems from winning six from six appearances. LeBron has lost six finals out of nine. Even if he wins three or four in a row, people will still hold those six losses against him.

So how does LeBron pass Jordan? Longevity. It seems highly unlikely that he’ll pass Jordan in the RINGZZZ debate but what if he wins another MVP, scores the most points in NBA history, wins a championship for three different teams, and plays the most minutes ever?

The Most Terrible Timing for MVP #5

Rewind to March 8th, just a few days before the NBA was forced to suspend the season on the evening of March 11th. The Lakers had beaten the Clippers in a marquee Sunday matchup where LeBron played like the best guy on the court against Kawhi and Paul George. The conversation on all the blogs, podcasts and NBA Twitter was how LeBron was now in the debate for the MVP, a change from the belief that Giannis had already locked up the award. At the same time, Giannis was nursing a knee injury and was expected to miss a few weeks while he rested up.

The Bucks were on a three game losing streak as the season was suspended but still hold a 53-12 record on the season and a 6.5 game lead over the Raptors for the one seed. The Lakers stand at 49-14 with the number one seed in the Western Conference and a 5.5 game lead over the Clippers. With just over 20 games to go, the scenario where Giannis sits out for a few weeks and the Lakers overtake the Bucks for the best record in the NBA is entirely plausible.

So the Lakers lead the NBA in wins, LeBron plays nearly 80 games, leads the league in assists with over 10 per game and also adds in 26 points and 8 rebounds a game. Sure Giannis’ numbers are still ridiculous at 30/14/6 but without the best record, getting hurt down the stretch and losing the all-important momentum for ‘narrative’ could see LeBron wrap up his fifth regular season MVP award.

This is important because it puts him equal to Jordan (and Bill Russell) at five, trailing only Kareem with his six. It puts him in a new tier of accomplishment. The season getting suspended when it did was the worst possible timing for LeBron and his legacy.

The Hunt for the Fourth Ring Is Not As Important As Doing It For Different Teams

A fourth championship doesn’t help LeBron in the debate on the face of it, but should he get there, it does put him in uncharted territory because he will have done it as the best player on three different teams. Robert Horry (7) and John Salley (4) are the only players to have won championships with three teams. Neither of those were the best player on their team and they don’t have a single NBA Finals MVP in any of those combined 11 contests between them.

Presumably, winning his fourth with the Lakers would give him his fourth Finals MVP trophy in addition to the fourth ring. There’s certainly a chance that AD plays a tremendous series on both ends and wins it himself but in this scenario, LeBron gets it because he’s LeBron. This would make him the only player in history with three Finals MVPs for three different teams. Kawhi also has a chance to achieve this accomplishment this year and next, so time is once again of the essence to get there first for LeBron.

It is arguable that wining for three different teams is more difficult than three for the same one. Different situations, GMs, coaches and players, and in LeBron’s case, having a key role in building those teams each time. Starting from scratch each time and still managing to go to eight straight finals along the way. The Warriors managed five straight themselves, with one of the greatest collections of talents ever assembled. The only players who have been to more are Bill Russell, Sam Jones and Tommy Heinsohn, who played for Celtics teams that didn’t matter. No one player has ever done it for different teams along the way. No other player has gotten close as one of the team’s key players especially doing it for different teams. I say key players because James Jones did it as a role player riding LeBron’s coattails as barely a bench player. This achievement requires consistency at an exceptionally high level that a lot of players just never had or were unable to sustain over the many years that LeBron has.

Longevity In Points The Ultimate Goal

To say that LeBron overtaking Kobe Bryant for third most points scored in NBA history was bittersweet is the understatement of the century. As things stand, most NBA points of all time currently looks like this:

1	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	38,387
2	Karl Malone	36,928
3	LeBRON JAMES	34,087

This is why every game and every season counts for LeBron. He currently has 1,544 points scored on the season to date and averaged around 2,000 a year his last few seasons in Cleveland. With roughly 20 games to play on the year plus the playoffs and maybe Finals, LeBron has been ‘robbed’ of roughly 500 points for this season. Even adding that 500 to his total leaves him roughly 2,300 points behind Malone, a season total he has only surpassed twice in his career and the last time was in 2008-9.

Without the points from this season he won’t be in a position to overtake Malone until the 2021-2022 season at which point he’ll be 37 years old. He’ll still be a further 1,400 points behind Kareem at that moment. It seems highly unlikely that’ll be averaging 2,000 points a season at that stage of his career, so this is why putting up numbers now while he still can is so important. He has to average at least 1,500 points a year over the next three years to overtake Kareem or something like 1,000 over the next five. This mark is in his sights but an injury, shortened season or who knows what else, pushes that timeline back. I still think he can and will do this and really this is his best argument to say that he was the greatest player of all time.

Catching Kareem in minutes might be more difficult and he is currently about 9,000 minutes behind:

Rank	Player	MP
1.	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	57446
2.	Karl Malone*	54852
3.	Dirk Nowitzki	51368
4.	Kevin Garnett	50418
5.	Jason Kidd*	50111
6.	Elvin Hayes*	50000
7.	Moses Malone*	49444
8.	Kobe Bryant	48637
9.	LeBron James	48329
10.	Wilt Chamberlain*	47859

LeBron has played around 2,700 minutes per year over the last few years, which means he’ll need to continue that for another four seasons to pass Kareem so the 2023-24 season. Again, this is likely to dip down as he rests more, so he needs to hit at least 2,250 minutes per year to do it in four years. Across 82 games that is about 27 minutes per game. Kareem did hit 28 minutes per in his age 40 before dropping down to 23 mins per game in his 41st and last year in the league. LeBron plays a different position and has a different skillset, so it is hard to project where he’ll be physically in a few years time. If he could stagger it so that:

2020-21 = 2700 (36 years old)

2021-22 = 2500 (37 years old)

2022-23 = 2000 (38 years old)

2023-24 = 1750 (39 years old)

That would put him right around Kareem’s 57,446 and is akin to a best case scenario. He has an outside shot at getting in the top 3-5 for most assists of all time and should be able to creep up into the top 7-10 all time for steals. Anything he can squeeze in this season helps him in the long run.

There’s a lot of hypotheticals in the scenarios laid out above, but it is my belief that this is what LeBron needs to do to go down as the greatest player in history. At least 5 MVPs, 4 championships and Finals MVP for 3 different teams and becoming the all-time points leader. If he leads the NBA in all-time minutes played in league history, then the argument is over. At that point, he essentially is the face of the NBA. This is why losing just 25% of the season and playoffs is potentially detrimental to his legacy and why he has the most to lose from the coronavirus suspension.