Before anyone writes an article that involves a discussion of Lebron James, I feel it is almost necessary to establish where you fall on the Lebron James Like/Dislike scale. That way, you (theoretically) cannot be dismissed automatically as a “hater” or whatever the opposite of a hater is. I’m pretty sure it’s not a “lover”. So in the interests of full disclosure, I fall more on the “lover” side than the “hater” side but am not irrationally blinded by either emotion when analysing him. Mostly, I want to see him succeed, so that people will stop “hating” on him because it really irritates me. Also, I’d like to know that I’m watching one of the best basketball players ever, as living in England, I didn’t get the chance to properly watch and enjoy Michael Jordan at the time. Those pre-Internet, pre-NBA League Pass days were bleak. As a final point before we move on, can people stop using the ‘count the ringz argument’ because it’s lazy.
The Cavaliers route to the final is fairly straightforward, through the easy Eastern Conference. There is only one real challenger in the Chicago Bulls, as the Washington Wizards are a few years away, the Heat are a few injuries away and I’m not a believer in Demar DeRozan and thus the Raptors. Therefore the title of this article is pretty risky, especially as it mostly relies on the health of Derrick Rose and him returning to full strength or at least 85% strength. This is even more risky, when the argument I use will be based on the health of the Cavaliers starting lineup.
When the Love for Wiggins trade rumours were going down, I didn’t think it was such a slam dunk move. In part, this was due to my 76er fan status; I’d spent all year imagining Wiggins on our team. Then, when the draft order came out, we were primed to take him 3rd overall and the dream seemed a reality. You’d argue that Joel Embiid was a nice replacement but its hard to shake off the Wiggins love. Anyway, my preference from a Cavs perspective would have been to trade Kyrie Irving for Kevin Love. Of course, I’m also making that trade up, since I have no idea whether the Wolves would have been interested in such a deal, especially after drafting a PG in Zach Lavine in the 1st round. But you could make the argument that they’d be getting a ‘Star’ in exchange for a ‘Star’, and in that sense, a deal for Irving would be more palatable than an unknown product in Wiggins.
I’d prefer to keep Wiggins over Irving because of defence. A starting lineup of Irving-Waiters-Lebron-Love-Varejao/Thompson isn’t stopping anyone. They can score in droves and at will but with the game on the line, you’re looking at Lebron as being the only reliable defender on that team. They also can’t protect the rim and in Miami, this wasn’t a big problem for Lebron as they made up for it with hyper-aggressive trapping. This Cavs team doesn’t have that same type of athleticism or commitment to defence. The Cavs ranked 19th in Defensive Rating last year, according to Basketball Reference, allowing 107.7 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls and the Spurs were 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Lebron by himself, possibly turns it into a top-15 unit but in Miami they were 4th in 2012 and 9th in 2013…defence wins championsips. In order to take down the Spurs, that needs to be closer to top-5 and unless Coach David Blatt in his 1st NBA year figures out a great system, there is no way the Cavs are beating the Spurs in the Finals.
Keeping Wiggins would have given you a better defensive presence and allowed the Cavs to rest Lebron for a couple of extra minutes per game. The guy has so many miles on his body after 4 straight Finals appearances and the Olympics that he needs to be playing less this year, so that he is fresher for the playoffs. Trading Irving would leave a fairly sizeable hole at the PG position, but PG is the deepest position in the league, with any number of players available. They could even have gone after Eric Bledsoe with a near max offer, which would give them more athleticism, some scoring and strong defence. Failing that, a replacement level PG guy would have been fine…the Heat won back-to-back titles with Mario Chalmers. Bringing Wiggins into a starting role at SG would shunt Dion Waiters to the bench. It seems fairly clear already that Waiters’ destiny is a 6th man off the bench, to provide instant offence and to be a heat-check guy. In a starting lineup behind Irving, Lebron and Love, how many shots is Waiters going to get? And how angry will he get when he isn’t getting those shots? He’ll probably end up grabbing the ball out of Kyrie’s hands and jacking up shots from half-court just to try to get some points. As a 6th man though, he’s free to run the bench unit and toss up shots to his heart’s content.
So the Cavs aren’t winning the Finals but I also don’t see them making the Finals. This is again a function of the Kyrie-Love part of the ‘new Big 3’. First, neither have ever been in a playoff game, let alone won a series. Bosh and Wade were far more qualified to be a ‘Big 3’ four years ago than Kyrie and Love now. When it comes down to a Game 7 against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals, I want Rose and Noah for their toughness and experience, not Kyrie and Love. Second, you might not even get Kyrie and Love because they can’t stay healthy. Neither can Anderson Varejao, who will likely start the season as the 5th starter on the Cavs unit. Since Kyrie entered the league 3 years ago, here are the number of games played and as a percentage of total games (bear in mind 2011-12 was a shortened 66 game season).
Kevin Love GP | Kevin Love % | Kyrie Irving GP | Kyrie Irving % | Anderson Varejao GP | Anderson Varejao % | |
2011-12 | 55 | 83.3 | 51 | 77.3 | 25 | 37.9 |
2012-13 | 18 | 22.0 | 59 | 72.0 | 25 | 30.5 |
2013-14 | 77 | 93.9 | 71 | 86.6 | 65 | 79.3 |
Total | 150 | 65.2 | 181 | 78.7 | 115 | 50.0 |
The other reason I’d trade Irving is he hasn’t played a full season in the NBA yet. There’s a decent chance that the Cavs will be without one of these players for the Playoff run. There’s not a lot in the way of depth on this roster, which isn’t surprising given its makeup but there are still a lack of serviceable replacements who can play big minutes. James Jones?! Come on! He didn’t get minutes last year, playing in just 20 games. Mike Miller had something of a resurgence last year but I wouldn’t want to rely on his health.
Coming back home was a big part of Lebron’s motivation for his return to Cleveland. Another part was probably a desire to lighten his own workload, share the burden with some younger guys and play less minutes a game. With the Cavs defensive issues, injury concerns and lack of playoff experience, this has all the makings of another heavy minute season for Lebron. Rather than lighten his load, its going to be another hard slog while the Cavs figure out how to play with one another. That’s why I see the Bulls pipping the Cavs to the Finals in the East, where they’ll beat the returning San Antonio Spurs. Bold prediction to end the article! I’m not sure if I truly believe my own prediction at this point but I’ll run with it anyway!