Why The Cavs Won’t Make The Finals

Before anyone writes an article that involves a discussion of Lebron James, I feel it is almost necessary to establish where you fall on the Lebron James Like/Dislike scale. That way, you (theoretically) cannot be dismissed automatically as a “hater” or whatever the opposite of a hater is. I’m pretty sure it’s not a “lover”. So in the interests of full disclosure, I fall more on the “lover” side than the “hater” side but am not irrationally blinded by either emotion when analysing him. Mostly, I want to see him succeed, so that people will stop “hating” on him because it really irritates me. Also, I’d like to know that I’m watching one of the best basketball players ever, as living in England, I didn’t get the chance to properly watch and enjoy Michael Jordan at the time. Those pre-Internet, pre-NBA League Pass days were bleak. As a final point before we move on, can people stop using the ‘count the ringz argument’ because it’s lazy.

The Cavaliers route to the final is fairly straightforward, through the easy Eastern Conference. There is only one real challenger in the Chicago Bulls, as the Washington Wizards are a few years away, the Heat are a few injuries away and I’m not a believer in Demar DeRozan and thus the Raptors. Therefore the title of this article is pretty risky, especially as it mostly relies on the health of Derrick Rose and him returning to full strength or at least 85% strength. This is even more risky, when the argument I use will be based on the health of the Cavaliers starting lineup.

When the Love for Wiggins trade rumours were going down, I didn’t think it was such a slam dunk move. In part, this was due to my 76er fan status; I’d spent all year imagining Wiggins on our team. Then, when the draft order came out, we were primed to take him 3rd overall and the dream seemed a reality. You’d argue that Joel Embiid was a nice replacement but its hard to shake off the Wiggins love. Anyway, my preference from a Cavs perspective would have been to trade Kyrie Irving for Kevin Love. Of course, I’m also making that trade up, since I have no idea whether the Wolves would have been interested in such a deal, especially after drafting a PG in Zach Lavine in the 1st round. But you could make the argument that they’d be getting a ‘Star’ in exchange for a ‘Star’, and in that sense, a deal for Irving would be more palatable than an unknown product in Wiggins.

I’d prefer to keep Wiggins over Irving because of defence. A starting lineup of Irving-Waiters-Lebron-Love-Varejao/Thompson isn’t stopping anyone. They can score in droves and at will but with the game on the line, you’re looking at Lebron as being the only reliable defender on that team. They also can’t protect the rim and in Miami, this wasn’t a big problem for Lebron as they made up for it with hyper-aggressive trapping. This Cavs team doesn’t have that same type of athleticism or commitment to defence. The Cavs ranked 19th in Defensive Rating last year, according to Basketball Reference, allowing 107.7 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls and the Spurs were 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Lebron by himself, possibly turns it into a top-15 unit but in Miami they were 4th in 2012 and 9th in 2013…defence wins championsips. In order to take down the Spurs, that needs to be closer to top-5 and unless Coach David Blatt in his 1st NBA year figures out a great system, there is no way the Cavs are beating the Spurs in the Finals.

Keeping Wiggins would have given you a better defensive presence and allowed the Cavs to rest Lebron for a couple of extra minutes per game. The guy has so many miles on his body after 4 straight Finals appearances and the Olympics that he needs to be playing less this year, so that he is fresher for the playoffs. Trading Irving would leave a fairly sizeable hole at the PG position, but PG is the deepest position in the league, with any number of players available. They could even have gone after Eric Bledsoe with a near max offer, which would give them more athleticism, some scoring and strong defence. Failing that, a replacement level PG guy would have been fine…the Heat won back-to-back titles with Mario Chalmers. Bringing Wiggins into a starting role at SG would shunt Dion Waiters to the bench. It seems fairly clear already that Waiters’ destiny is a 6th man off the bench, to provide instant offence and to be a heat-check guy. In a starting lineup behind Irving, Lebron and Love, how many shots is Waiters going to get? And how angry will he get when he isn’t getting those shots? He’ll probably end up grabbing the ball out of Kyrie’s hands and jacking up shots from half-court just to try to get some points. As a 6th man though, he’s free to run the bench unit and toss up shots to his heart’s content.

So the Cavs aren’t winning the Finals but I also don’t see them making the Finals. This is again a function of the Kyrie-Love part of the ‘new Big 3’. First, neither have ever been in a playoff game, let alone won a series. Bosh and Wade were far more qualified to be a ‘Big 3’ four years ago than Kyrie and Love now. When it comes down to a Game 7 against the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals, I want Rose and Noah for their toughness and experience, not Kyrie and Love. Second, you might not even get Kyrie and Love because they can’t stay healthy. Neither can Anderson Varejao, who will likely start the season as the 5th starter on the Cavs unit. Since Kyrie entered the league 3 years ago, here are the number of games played and as a percentage of total games (bear in mind 2011-12 was a shortened 66 game season).

Kevin Love GP Kevin Love % Kyrie Irving GP Kyrie Irving % Anderson Varejao GP Anderson Varejao %
2011-12 55 83.3 51 77.3 25 37.9
2012-13 18 22.0 59 72.0 25 30.5
2013-14 77 93.9 71 86.6 65 79.3
Total 150 65.2 181 78.7 115 50.0

The other reason I’d trade Irving is he hasn’t played a full season in the NBA yet. There’s a decent chance that the Cavs will be without one of these players for the Playoff run. There’s not a lot in the way of depth on this roster, which isn’t surprising given its makeup but there are still a lack of serviceable replacements who can play big minutes. James Jones?! Come on! He didn’t get minutes last year, playing in just 20 games. Mike Miller had something of a resurgence last year but I wouldn’t want to rely on his health.

Coming back home was a big part of Lebron’s motivation for his return to Cleveland. Another part was probably a desire to lighten his own workload, share the burden with some younger guys and play less minutes a game. With the Cavs defensive issues, injury concerns and lack of playoff experience, this has all the makings of another heavy minute season for Lebron. Rather than lighten his load, its going to be another hard slog while the Cavs figure out how to play with one another. That’s why I see the Bulls pipping the Cavs to the Finals in the East, where they’ll beat the returning San Antonio Spurs. Bold prediction to end the article! I’m not sure if I truly believe my own prediction at this point but I’ll run with it anyway!

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The Terrible Sports Commissioner Championship

With news that Sepp Blatter intends to run for a 5th straight term as FIFA President, I remember again, why I stopped following football so closely and threw my lot in with American sports. Events over the last few months have made me doubt that decision with racist NBA owners, the Ray Rice saga and other unpleasant incidents marring the landscape of the US sports scene. To confirm whether I made the right decision, I created the World’s Worst Sports Commissioner Championship, in one corner Roger Goodell representing the NFL, in the other Sepp Blatter from FIFA.

Leeeetttssss Get Ready To Ruuummmbbbllleeeee!

DING DING DING

Round 1: Years In Power/Dictatorship Index

Roger Goodell – Commissioner of the NFL since 2006 (8 years – Idi Amin)

Sepp Blatter – President of FIFA since 1998 (16 years – outlasted Hitler, gaining on Kim Jong-Il)

Winner: Sepp Blatter takes this one. Roger Goodell is still in US Presidency levels of ruling. 8 years seems like a lifetime when you have an incompetent leader like Goodell or George W. Bush, but compared to Blatter’s reign of terror, Goodell’s got a long way to catch up.

Round 2: Age/Senility

Roger Goodell – 55 years young

Sepp Blatter – 78 years young

Winner: Sepp Blatter takes this round with a massive 20 years over his opponent. That’s the difference between starting to get worried about old age vs. not being worried about old age because you’re so old that you don’t realise you’re too old.

Round 3: Viewership/Audience/How many people actively hate you

Roger Goodell – SuperBowl (125mn viewers worldwide)

Sepp Blatter – World Cup Final (350mn worldwide)

Winner: SB really cleaning up in this competition, with nearly three times the viewership and around 200mn more people knowing how awful he is at his job.

Round 4: Length Of Time Spent As A Professional Playing The Sport That You Have Ultimate Power To Oversee

Roger Goodell – 0 years

Sepp Blatter – 0 years

Winner: Tie. It’s always worth revisiting this fact, as it makes it clear that neither know what they’re talking about.

Round 5: Attitude Towards Women/Misogynist Rating

Roger Goodell – Probably tried to cover up his knowledge of the videotape that showed Ray Rice knocking his fiancee out cold.

Sepp Blatter – In 2004 Blatter said female footballers should “wear tighter shorts and low cut shirts… to create a more female aesthetic” and attract more male fans.

Winner: Giving this one to RG. While Blatter’s comments are obviously deplorable, the handling of the Ray Rice situation is downright unforgivable.  

Round 6: Blatant Disregard For Your Players’ Safety

Roger Goodell – Thursday night games; concealing medical studies linking concussions to lasting brain damage; allowing the game to be refereed by sub-par replacements during 2012; mismanaged approach to HGH testing until last week; desire for 18 games and playoff expansion.

Sepp Blatter – 2022 World Cup to be held in 50C/122F conditions in Qatar; no concussion protocol whatsoever.

Winner: Roger Goodell. The violence of the NFL trumps anything that happens in FIFA and player safety should be paramount. Ignoring the impact of repeated blows to the head makes me think he’s taken too many himself, before I remember he’s never played the game.

Round 7: Attitude Towards Racism/Old White Man Level

Roger Goodell – Long-time defender of the ‘honour’ behind the Washington Redskins name.

Sepp Blatter – Disavows notions that racism exists in his sport. Believes on-field racism can be solved “with a handshake.” Admonishes AC Milan players for walking off the pitch in response to racist chants against players by fans.

Winner: Both show supreme levels of ignorance when it comes to issues of racism in their sport. This is a close one but I’m going to give the edge to Roger Goodell here. Racism in football is mostly a case of a minority of fans, which are summarily banned for life from attending games, of which Blatter has very little control. The Redskins name on the other hand is a stain on the NFL and one which could be changed easily by Goodell with a bit of pressure on the detestable Dan Snyder (his official name). His continued support for the name in spite of multiple campaigns, edges out the occasional ignorant comments of Blatter.

Round 8: Attitudes Towards Homosexuality

Roger Goodell – I couldn’t find any evidence of a faux pas or disparaging remark. How boring.

Sepp Blatter – Allowing the World Cup to be held in Qatar where homosexuality is a crime, “I’d say they [gay fans] should refrain from any sexual activities.” Apparently this was said in a joking manner, so it’s fine.

Winner: Sepp Blatter by default. Either Blatter/Goodell are more accepting towards homosexuals or the homosexual lobby is more powerful than the Women and Non-White Race lobbies. 

Round 9: Transparency Index/If I Gave You This Envelope Of Cash Would You Accept It?

Roger Goodell – If I can pass it on to the owners and then lie about never having seen it, then Yes.

Sepp Blatter – He already spent the money before you walked into the room on buying the next FIFA Presidency election and host for the the World Cup.

Winner: Blatter. The evidence here is overwhelming. I was disappointed to see Vladimir Putin and Sepp Blatter sitting next to each other at the World Cup final. Football should not allow a corrupt dictator who rigs elections to attend such a prestigious event. Even if he is the president of FIFA.

Round 10: Sum Up Their Leadership Style In A Quote

Roger Goodell – “Running the NFL would be so much easier without the players.”

Sepp Blatter – “Where’s my money, bitch?”

Winner: Tie.

Final Verdict: Blatter takes the title of Worst Commissioner In Sports with a 6-4 victory. He’s already announced that he will be running for a 5th term in May 2015, which means he’ll be running the most powerful and global sport in the world at the ripe old age of 83. Completely unrelated fact: In Sepp Blatter’s home country of Switzerland, the average life expectancy for a male is 80.4 years old, which is the 9th highest in the world.

I know Goodell is sad to miss out on this edition, but I’d remind him that time is on his side and he still has plenty of years left as Commissioner of the NFL. I say that knowing full well that he will weather whatever self-inflicted controversies he causes by simply refusing to resign. When you’re accountable to no one apart from the 32 NFL owners who know they can control you like a puppet, then what you do in your job doesn’t really matter.

Nice work if you can get it.

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