I didn’t set out to create this blog to constantly cover Philadelphia stories but it just seems to be the case that so much is going on in the city every cycle. I promise to myself that I’ll do my best to look more nationally in the coming posts, just because the Eagles and Sixers’ seasons are over and there should be different stuff for me to write about. More crazy things can’t happen in Philadelphia, can it?!

Anyway, the Eagles made a big trade with the Cleveland Browns to move up to the #2 pick in the 1st round of the 2016 draft in order to draft a QB – Carson Wentz. In doing so, the Eagles gave up 5 picks, including a future 1st and a 2nd rounder in coming drafts. It came just days after I texted friends laughing at the LA Rams for doing the exact same thing with the Tennessee Titans, in order to get to #1. Leaving aside criticisms such as the fact that the top 2 prospects were not widely valued high, and how a QB-needy team (Cleveland) chose to roll with the QB Formerly Known As RG3 over picking Wentz, I want to focus on my issue with giving up 5 draft picks to what historically amounts to a 50/50 chance that the QB works out.

To be clear from the start, I have never watched Wentz play and have no real opinions about the fact he played at the FCS level. He could become the next Peyton Manning – Aaron Rodgers hybrid and I would still hate this decision. Giving up the farm is something that bad, desperate and short-sighted franchises do, to convince themselves they have a guy at QB and probably to sell more jerseys and hope to the fans. I’m also not a believer in Sam Bradford or Chase Daniel, though the latter intrigues me, probably because we’ve never seen him play – aka, backup QB syndrome. Even if Wentz turns into the best QB in the league there is no guarantee the Eagles win anything given what they gave up.

A lot of people around the world watched the Super Bowl this year. I would imagine that Eagles Owner Jeffrey Lurie, ex-GM/re-GM Howie Roseman and Head Coach Doug Pederson were three of the millions that did. If they did, they would have watched a 58 year old Quarterback who couldn’t throw a football more than 8 yards downfield and wouldn’t have enough mobility to run out of a burning building to save his own life. That QB won the Super Bowl off the back of his stellar defence. The old adage ‘Defence wins Championships’ proved itself to be correct once again. One study I tried to do for this blog, was to calculate the amount of salary that goes to QBs as a percentage of the cap. My belief is that paying your QB less, allows you to spend more on a depth on the rest of the roster and specifically defence. This is more important to winning a Super Bowl than ensuring you have the best QB in the NFL by spending 40% of your cap on his salary.

The Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks and Joe Flacco’s Baltimore Ravens are two recent examples of QBs on rookie contracts who were able to win Super Bowls. Even looking at the New England Patriots last year with Tom Brady on a discount contract, which allowed them to go out and spend big bucks on Darrelle Revis. The Patriots defence won that Super Bowl too, rather than Brady. Even going back further seems to support this: New Orleans Saints had Brees on a reasonable contract, as did the Green Bay Packers when they won with Aaron Rodgers. Overpaying the QB is the worst decision a franchise can make and its one of the reasons why I believe the Ravens will never win another one as long as they are paying Flacco huge money.

Coming back to the Eagles, they’re nowhere near giving up that kind of salary to a QB, so trading up for a QB isn’t a major problem on the surface. The problem is that the rest of the team is nowhere near ready to be able to compete. We currently have one Pro-Bowl calibre player on the roster: Fletcher Cox. The rest is largely unproven and we have a brand new Defensive Co-ordinator in Jim Schwartz. There’s a few other ‘good’ players on the roster but even with Schwartz’s recent success, this isn’t a world-beater. When you trade picks away, you lose the ability to get some difference makers and now there won’t be any coming until 2018. The timeline looks something like:

2016-17: This year will be awful. Transition from 3-4 Defence to 4-3 Defence. Wentz sits to ‘learn’ from Bradford, who does his normal below average play and probably gets hurt somewhere along the line. Maybe 1 other player from the late rounds emerges as a starter.

2017-18: No 1st rd pick, Bradford leaves, Wentz becomes the man in his redshirt rookie season. Throwing to Agholor who might not be good, Matthews who drops stuff all the time and Ertz. Ooh Wentz-Ertz has a kind of ring to it. Hope to get something out of the 2nd rd pick.

2018-19: Finally a 1st rd pick. But they’re a rookie and can’t be expected to transform the franchise in one season. No 2nd rd pick. Year 2 for Wentz, takes a step forward hopefully.

At this point, we’re 3 years in and I’d say there’s a chance we haven’t made the playoffs once yet. Is Pederson the Head Coach still? Kelly lasted just 3 years even with a good record.

2019-20: Wentz is in Year 3 but actually Year 4 of his contract, so you have to start thinking about offering him a new deal with his 5th and final year next year. In terms of roster, we’ve added one 1st rd and one 2nd rd since 2016. That’s insane. Cox turns 29 this year, is he still the same player? Is he on the team? Injuries taken their toll? Need to be making the playoffs at this point.

2020-21: This is your last year before you pay Wentz and thus the last year to load up on roster depth and defensive quality to challenge for a Super Bowl. Except you’ve had no high draft picks in years. Its already too late because the team isn’t good enough.

You give Wentz $30mn a year in the offseason and there goes your chance to win because he takes up too much of the cap.

That’s my timeline of despair. Instead, you gather as many picks as you can to build up the best possible roster. Get two 1sts or 2nds to spend on quality elsewhere, then add the QB on top. It matters less who he is, just that the roster is good. Add him in Year 3 of that timeline and suddenly you have a stronger roster that can compete straight away. Instead, the Eagles made the wrong decision and doomed the team for the next 5 years. Thanks.